Pérez, Ricciardo and Red Bull’s sticky second-driver dilemma

Red Bull’s dilemma over what to do with Sergio Pérez deepened over the Hungarian Grand Prix.

As Pérez made yet another inexplicable qualifying mistake and Max Verstappen struggled to fifth on Sunday, McLaren recorded its best F1 race weekend for more than a decade. Red Bull, who ahead of last year’s Belgian Grand Prix led the constructors’ championship by 229 points, is now just 51 points ahead of McLaren with 11 races to spare.

The change in fortunes has been extreme. McLaren has enjoyed a 58-point swing over Red Bull across the past six races. A few weeks ago, McLaren CEO Zak Brown said what everyone in F1 has been thinking for a while: while Pérez stays in the form he’s in, Red Bull is beatable in the race for the constructors’ championship.

McLaren’s huge performance gains have been obvious since Lando Norris won the Miami Grand Prix at the start of May, but that improvement also coincided with a rotten run of form for Verstappen’s teammate. Pérez’s last visit to the podium was one race earlier, at the Chinese Grand Prix; in the races he’s finished since, he’s been 4th, 8th, 8th, 7th, 7th, 17th. He’s failed to advance beyond Q1 in four of the past six races. Forget being out-qualified by Verstappen, Pérez has failed to beat Williams driver Logan Sergeant (who has never out-qualified his own teammate) in qualifying four times this season.

The talk about Pérez’s future has intensified recently, even after he signed a contract extension for 2025 — a decision many at Red Bull now seem to regret. The internal power struggle within the team has added a further wrinkle to the decision.

So, with the summer break looming after this weekend’s race at Spa-Francorchamps, what happens next?

Is Pérez’s time at Red Bull over?

Barring a miracle result at the Belgian Grand Prix, Sunday’s race at Spa may well be Pérez’s last for Red Bull. Multiple sources at the team feel that it must make a decision on Pérez’s future during the summer break, which begins on Monday.

Sources have told ESPN a pay-off for Pérez would be in the region of $5 million. There’s been a lot of speculation about whether Red Bull could afford to lose the financial backing Pérez brings from Mexico, but a tipping point appears to have been reached in that regard. First there’s the estimated $10 million difference between finishing first and second place in the constructors’ championship. Then there’s the bonus money Red Bull would miss out on from major partners should…