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Is Anyone in a Must-Win Situation at Homestead?

Is Anyone in a Must-Win Situation at Homestead?

Is any NASCAR Cup Series playoff driver in a must-win situation at Homestead-Miami Speedway?

Kevin Nix: Ryan Blaney and Chase Elliott. Both drivers are more than 40 points below the cut line, and William Byron, the driver fourth in points, has a win at the track. Byron’s expectations for the weekend should be high, which means it is unlikely that Elliott and Blaney would surpass him on points. They would both have to win to have any chance.

Stephen Stumpf: Everyone below the cut. Sure, a 30-point deficit can be overcome, but there’s no wild card like Talladega Superspeedway on the schedule, and it would take a herculean effort in points plus disaster for drivers above the cut line to overcome the gap. Tyler Reddick, Denny Hamlin, Blaney and Elliott all realistically need wins to advance to the Championship 4, but the good news for them is that all four are former winners at either Homestead or Martinsville Speedway.

Mark Kristl: Reddick is one of the best at racing alongside the wall at Homestead. If he does not win there, he will be in trouble because the race at Martinsville often results in drama. Other than Reddick, all the bottom four could use a win, but if Hamlin struggles, what will his mindset be at Martinsville? Yes, he’s good there, but he’s had a ho-hum playoff run. So no, he is not in a must-win situation, but he needs a good run with maximum points.

Will Martin Truex Jr. or Kyle Busch earn a win in the final three races?

Stumpf: Better luck next year for Kyle Busch. Daytona International Speedway, Darlington Raceway and Kansas Speedway were his best shots, but the No. 8 team hasn’t shown enough speed to think it’ll be a contender for the upcoming races. It’s a long shot for Martin Truex Jr., but he still has a realistic chance. Homestead and Martinsville are two of his best tracks, and the No. 19 is finally putting complete races together, with a third at Kansas Speedway and a sixth at Las Vegas Motor Speedway after a horrendous summer. It doesn’t help that Joe Gibbs Racing will have two cars looking to win and advance to the Championship 4, but Truex will still be a factor in both races.

Kristl: Sadly, no. Truex has three wins at Martinsville, but he only has one top five in his past five races there. He’s run better at Homestead, but he has not contended for victories this year. Busch’s momentum has cooled off and his opportunities to use a split pit strategy such as at Michigan…

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