Do Martin Truex Jr.’s Playoff Chances Rest On Watkins Glen Win?

Do Martin Truex Jr.’s NASCAR Cup Series playoff chances rest on a win at Watkins Glen International?

Last weekend’s race at Richmond Raceway is one that Martin Truex Jr., James Small and the No. 19 team will wish they could take back.

Heading into last Sunday’s (Aug. 14) race, Truex had led a combined 1,237 laps at the 0.75-mile oval in his last 13 starts, more than 95 laps led per race on average. He had led 80 laps or more in 10 of the 13 races.

But Truex ended up being a complete nonfactor on Sunday, as he had an average running position of 10th and led zero laps en route to a seventh-place finish.

He entered the day 19 points behind Ryan Blaney for the final playoff spot and is now 26 behind heading into this weekend’s race at Watkins Glen.

Richmond wasn’t Truex’s only chance at punching his ticket to the postseason, but it was certainly a missed opportunity. A 26-point deficit is nearly half a race, so Truex will have to outrun Blaney at Watkins Glen and Daytona International Speedway by a wide margin to make it in the playoffs on points. And with Blaney’s success at Daytona and the lottery of superspeedway racing, Truex pointing his way in will be a tall order.

And Truex pointing his way in would be all for naught if Watkins Glen or Daytona produces a 16th winner. Truex would then have to win the other race to make it in, no questions asked.

Therefore, Truex’s best chance at the postseason may rest on winning this weekend at the Glen. On paper, it certainly sounds doable. Truex picked up his lone win at Watkins Glen in 2017, and he led the most laps at Watkins Glen last year. In his last four starts at the track, Truex has finished in the top three in all of them.

However, Joe Gibbs Racing has struggled at road courses with the Next Gen car. Truex has recorded just one top 10 in four road courses races this season, a seventh at Circuit of the Americas in March. In 16 road courses starts this season, JGR drivers have combined for two top-10 finishes. And that’s not even accounting for the competition that Truex will have to face.

Remember that Chase Elliott guy? Sure, he hasn’t won a road race this season. But he is on his way to winning the regular season championship, and Watkins Glen is his wheelhouse. He dominated back-to-back races at Watkins Glen in 2018 and 2019, with Truex finishing right behind him each time. And in 2021, it took everything going wrong in the first half of the race for Elliott to be denied a…