This weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Daytona International Speedway injects the breed of chaos NASCAR has probably craved ever since the win-and-you’re-in element was introduced to the playoffs, thanks to 15 different winners throughout the regular season to date.
Entering the week, just one spot was up for grabs, going to either Ryan Blaney, Martin Truex Jr. or one of those two plus 13 others if any of them were to win Daytona.
But despite his hope that he’d be back in his No. 45 by the playoffs, Kurt Busch rescinded his playoff waiver Aug. 25 due to injury, meaning two spots are available instead.
It’s still the same 15 drivers, though. With the caveat that one must finish in the top 30 in Cup points to score a playoff spot should one win, Corey LaJoie and Cody Ware are mathematically ineligible whether they end up in victory lane at the end of the night or not, due to their gap behind 30th in points.
Despite the crapshoot nature of races at Daytona and Talladega Superspeedway, there still are some clear frontrunner candidates this weekend to take the final two spots.
Whether it’s because they’ll point their way in or because they’re generally superspeedway aces who have a good chance of finding their way at the front at race’s end, here’s each driver ranked from least likely to be part of the playoffs when the dust settles to most likely.
15. Harrison Burton
It’d be a Cinderella story to see Harrison Burton get Wood Brothers Racing its 100th Cup win — and maybe that day is coming eventually. But Daytona this weekend seems to be neither the time nor place.
Not that WBR doesn’t have a solid superspeedway pedigree; Trevor Bayne‘s 2011 Daytona 500 shocker comes to mind. Burton himself, however, has not shown particular superspeedway prowess just yet. He finished 39th in the Daytona 500 this year and 34th at Talladega in the spring, and his only other Cup start on either track was a 20th-place run for Gaunt Brothers Racing in 2021.
Anything can happen at Daytona, but Burton doesn’t yet seem to be able to find his way to the front and stay there. A Hail Mary is possible this weekend — true of anyone on this list, I guess. He’s just the least flashy choice.
14. Cole Custer
All indications are that Cole Custer, despite a lackluster third Cup season, has job security at Stewart-Haas Racing. That alone indicates he’s unlikely to go out of his way to make any sort of risky moves to take the checkered flag before anyone…
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