When can Verstappen clinch the 2022 F1 world title?

After seeing Verstappen romp home to victory from P14 on the grid Mercedes team boss Wolff suggested that “we are in a situation where the championship will be concluded in Europe, probably”.

While technically not possible, Wolff’s hyperbolic comment was perhaps a factor of just how soul-destroying Verstappen’s pace was for the competition.

After being kept honest by Charles Leclerc and Ferrari in the opening third of the season, Verstappen is now running riot in the championship, starving whatever was left of the 2022 title battle of oxygen and instead placing it on life support.

With just 216 points still on offer across the final eight races, which includes one more sprint in Brazil, Verstappen now holds a 93-point lead on nearest competitor Sergio Perez and 98 on Leclerc, making a repeat of 2021’s final race title showdown extremely implausible.

All Verstappen needs is four wins from the remaining eight races to seal the deal.

Verstappen wrapping up the title at his earliest convenience could happen as soon as Singapore, with five races remaining, but then he needs to win the next three races in Zandvoort, Monza and Singapore with both Perez and Leclerc not scoring a single point.

For simplicity’s sake we’ll assume that the winner also takes the bonus point for fastest lap and then the situations looks as follows.

Scenario 1: Verstappen wins, competitors fail to score x 4

That’s the most extreme projection, so let’s look at what’s plausible instead.

At Spa Verstappen clinched his ninth race win of 2022, and our second scenario is that Red Bull now has the fastest car for the remainder of the season.

If Verstappen were to continue his streak and take the maximum haul of 26 points in Zandvoort, Monza and Singapore and Perez were to finish second each race, that would take the Dutchman to a 117-point lead with 138 remaining.

After the following race at Suzuka the number of points on offer shrinks to just 112. Perez would have to outscore his teammate at least once, and by more than the difference between first and second, to avoid Verstappen going big in Japan.

Scenario 2: Verstappen…