How Far Will Toyota Go In The Cup Playoffs?

Does Martin Truex Jr. need a new crew chief?

For now, no.

With Cole Pearn’s retirement at the conclusion of 2019, Martin Truex Jr. had to prove that he could remain an elite without him, as Pearn had been with him for 24 of his 26 NASCAR Cup Series wins at that point. 2020 was Truex’s first season with James Small, and while he led over 900 laps, the No. 19 team was only able to find victory lane once.

Truex silenced doubters in 2021, as he won four races and finished runner-up behind Kyle Larson in the season finale at Phoenix Raceway. 2022 has been a different story, however, as Truex missed the playoffs after failing to score a win in the first 26 races.

But despite missing the playoffs, Truex finished the regular season fourth in points. He has led 456 laps this season and holds the second-best average finish of all drivers. Even if the pairing has failed to reach victory lane this year, they clearly have shown the speed to do so.

Nevertheless, strategy has been a weakness for the No. 19 team this season. At Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Truex was running second when a caution came out with less than five laps remaining. Truex and his Joe Gibbs Racing teammate Kyle Busch elected for four tires while Alex Bowman and Kyle Larson elected to take two; Bowman went on to win while Truex was only able to make his way up to eighth.

At Nashville Superspeedway, Truex was running fourth before another late caution flag brought all the JGR cars down pit road. Had he stayed out, he would’ve restarted on the front row with Chase Elliott. Instead, Truex and his JGR teammates were mired back in the back, and he ended up in 22nd after contact in the closing laps

The biggest missed opportunity of all came at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Truex won the pole in qualifying, which was his first Cup pole since 2018. He had a rocket ship for the first two-thirds of the race, as he led 172 of the first 206 laps. But as the field came down for the final round of pit stops on lap 207, the No. 19 team elected to take no tires. That ended up being the losing strategy, as all the cars that took four tires carved their way through the field and were the ones that battled for the win; Truex ended up fourth.

Of course, it’s easy to say that all of these calls were wrong in hindsight. But if just one of the three had gone the other way, Truex might be in the playoffs this weekend with a win.

For now, the Small and Truex pairing has led to consistent speed for the No. 19…