Was there a way for Mercedes to win the F1 Dutch Grand Prix?

The Dutch Grand Prix was the closest Mercedes has come to winning a Formula One race this season, yet the team fell just short of beating Max Verstappen and Red Bull. Ultimately a faster car and stronger strategy won at Zandvoort, but there were a number of “what ifs” after the race that raised the question over whether Mercedes could have won with a bit more luck or a better strategy.

Lewis Hamilton’s frustration at the situation was clear over the radio as he unleashed an expletive-laden message to his team, which he later apologised for. In the final 12 laps after a safety car restart, he dropped from first place to fourth as Mercedes took a gamble on tyre strategy that didn’t pay off.

The situation in that final part of the race, with Hamilton on older tyres defending from Verstappen on fresh softs, had uncanny parallels with the season finale in Abu Dhabi last year when Verstappen snatched the championship from Hamilton. The race result in Zandvoort followed the same trend, with Verstappen coming out on top, but it’s unfair to accuse Mercedes of failing to learn from its mistakes in a race where it defied expectations to put itself in the mix for victory in the first place.

Ultimately, given the faultless performance of Verstappen and Red Bull, it’s hard to imagine a course of events in which Mercedes could have won the Dutch Grand Prix, but there are clear signs that the eight-time constructors’ champions are getting close.

Why did Mercedes not pit Hamilton under the safety car?

With the benefit of hindsight, Mercedes should have pitted Hamilton for soft tyres under the late safety car period. It’s very unlikely it would have led to victory, but it almost certainly would have secured a double podium, with Hamilton coming home second and teammate George Russell third. There was time for both cars to pit and rejoin ahead of Charles Leclerc in fourth, regardless of Ferrari’s decision to change tyres or stay out, but instead Mercedes took a gamble with Hamilton’s car.

The reasoning was clear. Before the safety car, Verstappen was cruising to a comfortable victory, but when Valtteri Bottas’ Alfa Romeo stopped on the pit straight with a power unit issue, the race was thrown wide open. The choice of whether to pit under the resulting safety car was posed to all teams, and Red Bull, knowing the pace advantage the fresh tyres would offer, decided to…