What F1 GPS data reveals about Mercedes’ threat to Red Bull in Australia

What had been a consistent 0.4-second deficit in the dry to pacesetter Max Verstappen across Friday and Saturday morning practice in Melbourne was suddenly slashed in half right when it counted.

At the start of a second season of ground-effect struggles for the eight-time constructors’ champion, George Russell hustled the limited W14 round just 0.236s short of the 1m16.732s Red Bull benchmark. Meanwhile, team-mate Lewis Hamilton was only another 0.136s in arrears to lead the second row of the grid ahead of Aston Martin driver Fernando Alonso.

Changeable weather in FP2 leaves all teams deprived of race simulations, but Russell has naturally promised to “go for it” in any dice with Verstappen. A breakdown of their one-lap pace suggests he is right not to roll over and declare the race to be a walkover for the RB19, as the first two rounds of the term might imply.

The car fixes Mercedes has been chasing Down Under

Part of the reason why the Mercedes turn of speed in qualifying was unexpected, aside from the underlying inferiority of the W14 compared to the Red Bull, comes from the team again losing time to experimenting with car set-up to appease Russell and Hamilton.

The seven-time champion in particular has complained of lacking confidence with an unstable rear end at lower speeds. This comes in addition to his desire for more downforce. As a result, the team used FP1 and FP2 to switch between suspension settings to chase more mechanical grip. However, this led to swings in driver satisfaction from one session to the next as Mercedes attempts to stay within the car’s narrow operating window.

For example, Russell reported that he felt more comfortable in the car as the day wore on. By contrast, Hamilton came away feeling that the team had taken a backwards step between the two runouts.

When Hamilton led the Mercedes charge in FP1, relative to Verstappen, the telemetry shows that he suffers most under initial acceleration out of the slower sequences before the W14 fights back through the mid-range. This poor getaway tallies with his uneasy relationship with the rear axle.

And, as per Saudi Arabia, the Red Bull pulls no punches towards its top speed. The RB19 flexes its muscles by up to 6mph through the quicker runs leading to Turn 3, the reprofiled Turns 9-10 and into the 90-degree right-hander of Turn 11.