Where did Mercedes’ Australia qualifying come from?

MELBOURNE, Australia — Seeing the top three drivers get out of their cars after qualifying session at the Australian Grand Prix, you’d be forgiven for being transported back to 2021. A Red Bull driver on pole followed closely by two Mercedes cars is nothing new in F1, but in the context of the 2023 season Saturday’s result was a huge surprise.

At this year’s first qualifying session in Bahrain, George Russell’s Mercedes was 0.6s off Max Verstappen on pole, underlining the team’s fears that it had lost ground to Red Bull over the winter. The disappointing result led team boss Toto Wolff to call for a complete overhaul of his team’s design direction and he effectively wrote off any chance of fighting for the title.

Four weeks later in Australia and the title chances still look incredibly slim, but Russell’s gap to pole position is now down to 0.236s.

“I could play it cool here and say that we expected it, but we did not,” Wolff said after Saturday’s session. “I think what you need to love in this sport is that with all the lows you have, you also have some highs.

“Obviously, it’s not where we want to be, we want to challenge all the way to the front, but finishing P2 and P3 was definitely much than we expected coming into this weekend.”

Where did the performance come from?

The 2023 season is still only two races old ahead of Sunday’s showdown, but Mercedes’ upward trajectory is clear to see. While the car is still a long way short of Red Bull’s performance — Verstappen indicated his lap wasn’t brilliant and his teammate Sergio Perez crashed out in Q1 with a technical issue — the team has extracted more from the W14 with each passing round.

The overall understanding of the car has undoubtedly improved, although it should also be noted that Saturday’s qualifying session was unusual as it took place in surprisingly cold conditions that were very different to the two races in the Middle East earlier in the month. Getting tyres in the right temperature range was key to a good lap on Saturday at Albert Park, and while both Mercedes drivers nailed at least one lap, a lot of their rivals struggled to find the sweetspot.

“I think that obviously over more races we understand the car better,” Wolff said. “I think what was particularly good today was the agility of the team in deciding on the structure of the qualifying, when…