He’s Back! But When Will Chase Elliott Win Again?

1. When and where does Chase Elliott get back into victory lane?

You may not have heard about it, but Chase Elliott is back.

Last weekend at Martinsville Speedway, the NASCAR Cup Series Most Popular Driver made his first start since his leg injury prior to the Cup race at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in March. Even better, despite making his return at a physically demanding heavy braking short track, Elliott even scored a top-10 finish.

But earning a top 10 won’t get you into the playoffs, and after missing six races, you can forget about trying to point your way into the postseason too. No, there’s only one thing this No. 9 team should care about right now.

Winning.

With the need to be within the top 30 in points to remain playoff eligible removed and a playoff waiver granted to Elliott by NASCAR, a victory for the No. 9 team will grant it immediate access into the postseason. However, among the remaining 17 points races and tracks before the playoffs begin, which one is Elliott’s next best chance at winning?

How about next weekend at Talladega Superspeedway? Well, that’s not impossible, but it’s a heck of a wild card. That’s also goes without mentioning the Ford dominance on the recent superspeedway racetracks, and we’ll get to that in a minute.

Instead, let’s look at another one of his tried-and-true circuits – Dover Motor Speedway.

In two weeks, the Georgian will join the Cup field when it heads to the concrete mile-long circuit in Delaware. There, Elliott not only has two wins – including last year’s race – but he also boasts the impressive statistic of finishing outside of the top five in only three of his 12 total Cup starts. That’s doesn’t always mean a win, but with Hendrick Motorsports being as dominant as it is this season, any HMS Bowtie running near the front is a threat for victory.

The cherry on top is that Dover isn’t a heavy braking circuit either, meaning Elliott’s leg condition – although by that time it will surely be healed regardless – shouldn’t have much effect on his driving ability.

There’s also the road course elephant in the room.

Elliott has seven career victories on the road courses, making him the winningest active driver in the Cup Series. While his last victory on the winding circuits came in 2021 at Road America, he finished in the top five at both Road America and Watkins…