Ferrari may have finished Formula One‘s preseason testing with the fastest time, but it looks as though Red Bull remains the team to beat ahead of the new season. That was certainly the consensus in the paddock at the end of three days of track running at the Bahrain International Circuit on Friday, just one week ahead of the opening qualifying session of the year this Friday, March 1.
Just how far Red Bull is ahead of the chasing pack and the exact order of the teams in that battle for second remains up for debate, though. Unlike a qualifying session in which all 20 drivers aim to set the fastest time possible, there is no incentive to chase ultimate lap times in testing, and numerous variables throughout the days mean the results on the timesheets present a skewed order at the end of each day.
Trying to untangle the web of lap times from testing is often considered a fool’s errand, especially with the first qualifying sessions just four days away. But where’s the fun in waiting for reality to play out?
Instead, we’ve analysed the lap times by taking into account as many performance differentiators as possible. Tyre compounds, for example, are key to lap times, with Pirelli offering five variations in testing from the softest (and fastest) C5 through to the hardest (and slowest) C1. Most fast laps were set on either the C4 or the C3 compounds in last week’s test, with fresh C4s offering a 0.6-seconds advantage per lap over the C3s.
Other factors, such as fuel loads, are unknown but can also have a big impact on performance. As little as 10 kilograms of fuel can cost as much as 0.3 seconds in lap time.
We’ve also listened to sources at teams before putting a finger to the wind to cobble together the following competitive order ahead of Saturday’s season opener (9:55 a.m. ET; stream live on ESPN).
1. Red Bull
Fastest lap: 1:30.679 (Day 2, Sergio Pérez, C4 compound)
Total laps: 390
It should come as no surprise that the team that has won 38 of the 44 races held under the current technical regulations remains the team to beat ahead of the first round of the new season. The only question after testing is quite how far the Red Bull RB20 is ahead of the rest of the field, with estimations within the paddock ranging from as much as…
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