Verstappen set for straightforward win

In Max Verstappen’s three championship-winning seasons, he had never once started from pole position in Saudi Arabia.

Now, at the fourth attempt, car number one will start from position number one at the Jeddah Corniche Circuit. Given what has gone before there’s every chance this is the prelude to another win.

But Verstappen has never enjoyed a simple race in Jeddah. In 2021, he was embroiled in an ugly battle with Hamilton. While he won in 2022, he benefitted from pole-winning team mate Sergio Perez losing the lead to a badly-timed Safety Car.

Last year, he likely would have won from pole position, but a driveshaft failure in qualifying left him down in 15th on the grid. He climbed back up to second by the finish.

After his never-headed, lights-to-flag victory in Bahrain last weekend, Verstappen was quick to point out that Jeddah’s much faster, flowing layout and smoother asphalt would “probably help other teams compared to us.” Given that his qualifying advantage was significantly larger than it was a week ago in a car which is stronger over a full stint rather than a single lap, that does not bode well for Red Bull’s rivals.

In Thursday’s second practice, Verstappen once again was clearly the quickest over the long runs, maintaining a pace in the high 1’33s/low 1’34s on the medium tyre. Not only was that around half a second a lap faster than his team mate, it was also quicker than the Ferrari of Carlos Sainz Jnr, the two Mercedes and the two McLarens, who all ran on the same compound.

Leclerc tried his run on the soft tyre, perhaps testing just how durable it could be around a track that is much kinder on tyres than Bahrain. But even on theoretically faster tyres, Leclerc was never on the same pace as the pole winner.

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There is little “easy” in Formula 1, but choosing a strategy in Jeddah might be close. With the low level of tyre degradation around the 6.1km circuit and the very high average lap speed, pitting more than once is unwise from a strategy perspective. Pirelli describe a one-stop strategy as being “almost obligatory”, with a start on the mediums before a stop between laps 18-25 their recommendation for Saturday.

But while strategy may be simple, very little else is around Jeddah. First of all, by starting in second on the grid, Leclerc has a strong chance of beating Verstappen to the first corner. In the five standing starts…