Why Aston Martin could beat Mercedes in F1 race to sign Verstappen

Just a few weeks ago it seemed inconceivable that he would leave the dominant team of the ground effects era and potentially hand a championship-winning car to someone else.

However the Christian Horner saga has turned the F1 world on its head and exposed tensions within the camp.

The full details have yet to emerge, but the picture that is being painted is a simple one. Verstappen doesn’t want to stay if Horner remains in charge as team principal, and he doesn’t want to stay if Red Bull advisor and close supporter Helmut Marko leaves.

It was in March 2022 that Verstappen signed a contract extension that committed him to the team for seven seasons. Both parties decided that the time was right to extend that commitment, and an extra five years was added, fresh of the back of his maiden F1 world title clinched in controversial circumstances at the 2021 Abu Dhabi GP.

Crucially that term included the first three seasons of the new F1 regulations with the new Red Bull Powertrains engine, which at the time was expected to be badged as a Porsche.

It was a commitment of unprecedented length on both sides. It gave the team extra bargaining power when negotiating with partners, who knew that they could sign up for the long term and the superstar of the era would be on board. Among those attracted was Ford, who stepped in to back the engine project when the Porsche deal faltered.

Two years on from signing that deal, and having secured three titles and with a fourth already looking likely, the chances of Verstappen seeing out the remaining four years of the deal appear to be slim.

Horner’s own words are very telling. On race day in Bahrain he was adamant that Verstappen was not going anywhere.

“I’m certain that he will,” he said, when asked if Verstappen will see out his contract. “He’s got a great team around him. He’s got great faith in that team. We’ve achieved an awful lot together. He’s committed to an agreement until 2028.”

Just a week later in Jeddah he still insisted that Verstappen has no reason to leave, but there were signs that the mood had changed.

“You can never say never,” he said. “If a driver doesn’t want to be somewhere then they’ll go somewhere else, but as a team I can’t see any reason why anyone would want to step out of this team.”

Pressed on the subject he added: “It’s like anything in life, you can’t force somebody to be…