Why Mercedes’ Japan F1 podium claims seem far-fetched

At Suzuka, Mercedes endured another disappointing weekend, in which George Russell finished seventh and Lewis Hamilton ninth – reversing their respective qualifying positions in a train behind Fernando Alonso.

According to team boss Wolff, Mercedes’ rough qualifying was compounded by an “atrocious” first stint as the Silver Arrows initially attempted a bold one-stopper, which unlike Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc they had to abandon in favour of a more conventional two-stop race.

“We ended up where we started and it was just very difficult,” Wolff told Sky Sports F1. “We had a second and third stint that were super quick and we would’ve been racing for a podium but [for] an atrocious first stint.

Expanding on his comments later on, he said: “We were very quick through the Esses, whereas last year we were nowhere.

“We were trying to make a one-stop stick, probably over-managed the tyres and had an atrocious first stint but a very competitive second and third stint the moment we basically did what the others did, and that would have looked completely different.”

Suggesting Mercedes could have mounted a credible podium challenge raises some eyebrows, given the 25-second gap between third-placed Carlos Sainz and Russell, with Mercedes instead seeming to confirm its fourth place in the pecking order behind Red Bull, Ferrari and McLaren.

So do the numbers behind Wolff’s bold claims really stack up?

Due to the varying different race strategies, made possible by all three of Pirelli’s tyre compounds being viable options, it’s not as straightforward as comparing lap times and calling it a day. But there are several data points that provide a good indication.

First up is the Mercedes duo’s second stint on hard tyres, which roughly coincided with Leclerc’s stint on the same compound, as well as McLaren’s Lando Norris who shadowed Leclerc by pitting on the same lap.

And while the Mercedes cars were indeed rapid on their first laps out of the pits, their average lap time as the stint progressed quickly shifted towards a 1m36.6s for Hamilton and 1m36.4s for Russell, compared to 1.36.1s for Leclerc and 1m36.2s for Norris.

It has to be pointed out that Russell and Hamilton pitted three to four laps earlier, so Leclerc and Norris enjoyed a slight tyre life advantage during the 11 laps we could compare. But the latter pair also…