Can Math Save Next Gen Superspeedway Racing?

1. Please Don’t Ever Quote Number of Lead Changes as Proof of Good Racing Ever Again

“Your eyes can deceive you, don’t trust them.”

Those wise words weren’t given to us by any real life philosopher, but by Obi-Wan Kenobi in the original Star Wars. The context was pretty simple: He’s trying to convince Luke Skywalker that connecting to the Force requires relying on instinct and setting preconceived notions aside, even things as basic as what your eyes can see.

Alas, here on earth we have to rely on our eyes to sort things out for us that might otherwise lead us to believe something that isn’t true. For example, looking at the stats from the NASCAR Cup Series race at Talladega Superspeedway on Sunday (April 21) without actually seeing it could lead you to believe it was the greatest superspeedway race of all time.

I mean, 72 lead changes! Anthony Alfredo led four laps! Sounds like an absolute blast.

In truth, it was a tale of two races, neither of which passed the eye test.

In the first two stages, everyone played nice (there were no cautions for cause). In the final stage, one group of cars hatched an almost foolproof plan (we’ll come back to that), botched it, then saw one member of the group win anyway because no one could pass and a big chunk of the field wrecked coming back to the checkered flag.

For anyone who asked for more parity in the sport, this Talladega race was the ultimate example. All those lead changes? They came because no cars were able to make any moves without help, so anyone could lead if they ended up at the front of the fastest line at the start/finish line — and almost everyone did at some point.

This is not a new phenomenon in Cup superspeedway races, but it felt like it reached its logical extreme in this particular Talladega race. To make matters worse, it didn’t even shake the stranglehold the big teams have on the sport this year; yes, it wasn’t a Hendrick Motorsports or Joe Gibbs Racing driver that won, but 23XI Racing is essentially a spinoff of JGR, not exactly a guppy in an ocean of sharks.

All of this is a somewhat long-winded way of saying the eye-popping number of lead changes was misleading, and your eyes were the best way of telling you the truth in this case. Sorry, Obi-Wan.

2. Things That Wouldn’t Make Sense to Casual Racing Fans, Pt. I

To hardcore racing fans, the strategic side of NASCAR is often intriguing. Things like tire conservation, pit…