History tells us that no driver who has won three consecutive Formula 1 world championships has ever failed to extend that run to four.
Juan Manuel Fangio did it in 1957, Michael Schumacher in 2003, Sebastian Vettel in 2013 and Lewis Hamilton four years ago.
Sure enough, Max Verstappen already looks like the nailed-on favourite to win again this year, with twice as many wins as his rivals combined.
It’s by no means already over – Verstappen’s lead stands at 56 points with 422 available. But someone will have to put a serious dent in his superiority in order to achieve that and the driver who went into the last race best-placed to do so – Charles Leclerc – came away with nothing.
The situation in the constructors’ championship is quite different, however. Red Bull’s 49-point lead over their closest challenger is less than Verstappen’s – and there are still 720 points up for grabs.
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What’s more, Red Bull haven’t scored the most points in any of the last three rounds. They were out-scored by two of their rivals in the last two events, a situation which would have been unthinkable last year when they scored more points than their two closest competitors combined:
Red Bull’s increased vulnerability at the top of the championship table is partly down to the progress made by Ferrari, McLaren and lately Mercedes. It’s also due to shortcomings on their side: Monaco was a poor weekend all round, while Sergio Perez is threatening to fall back into the slump which ruined his 2023 campaign.
The good news for Red Bull, as far as the competition from their rivals goes, is that all three are also taking points off each other. This is proving even more useful for Verstappen in the drivers’ title fight.
But while Red Bull began the season strongly, so much so that some quickly wrote the season off, Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes have narrowed the performance gap since then. If that trend continues and Red Bull have to start fighting harder for victories, the constructors’ contest could become a two, three or even four-way fight.
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The next three races will be especially significant in this respect, as they mark a move towards circuits which, on paper, should suit the RB20 better. Three of the last four races took place on tracks with a bias towards slower corners, rougher surfaces and kerb-rising.
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