The factors behind Mercedes’ prospective Antonelli gamble

Toto Wolff has all but confirmed Andrea Kimi Antonelli would be driving in Formula 1 next season – but is it not a big gamble for Mercedes?

Wolff has had nearly six months to ponder his selection on who would partner George Russell after Lewis Hamilton activated an early exit clause in his contract to join Ferrari in 2025.

Speaking during the Canadian GP, the Mercedes boss inadvertently admitted the team would be picking the young Italian after cooling its interest in Carlos Sainz.

“Carlos deserves a top seat. He’s done a fantastic job,” said Wolff, “but for us, we’ve embarked on a route now to say…we want to reinvent ourselves a little bit going forward and Kimi Antonelli definitely plays a part in that.

“We haven’t taken a decision yet for next year but we didn’t want to have Carlos wait as well because he needs to take the decisions for himself. That’s just fair. He’s doing a super job.”

A noble statement perhaps, but also one that has sent the rumour mill into overdrive with conclusions that Antonelli, 17, had now been selected by Mercedes for 2025.

It means we now face the prospect of one of the most exciting promotions in Formula 1 history.

It is similar to when Hamilton joined McLaren in 2007 when he went from racing in the second tier to a leading F1 team, rather than one in the midfield – although cynics could suggest that is where Mercedes currently finds itself.

Hamilton of course made the transition when F1 testing rules were more relaxed and had the benefit of more experience in driving the machinery compared to Antonelli, whose undoubted potential is balanced with considerable risk.

Assessing his current season in F2 with Prema, it is obvious that he is still finding his feet as he is yet to score a podium and finds himself in sixth place in the driver’s championship, 32 points off the leader, Paul Aron.

His points return in the early stage of his rookie season has not matched that same level achieved by the likes of Russell, Lando Norris or Charles Leclerc when they raced in championship.

However, for context his Prema team have struggled with this season’s new F2 car and you only need to look at his team-mate, Ferrari’s young driver Oliver Bearman, who is place in 13th in the championship – albeit having forfeited the Jeddah round to replace Sainz when was ruled out by appendicitis.

Also worth nothing is the breathtaking…