Clinching his fourth title will tax Verstappen’s restraint more than ever · RaceFans

Max Verstappen’s domination of Formula 1 was on another level last year. Even if he hadn’t come back after the summer break he would still have won the title by a point.

Because of that, and the fact Red Bull were still in strong shape as 2024 began, it’s easy to underestimate the quality of the job he’s done so far this year. Even as the threat from his rivals has grown stronger, he’s continued to pile up wins.

Thanks to that he has amassed a lead of 84 points. That could prove enormously important in the second half of the season if the development trend we’ve seen so far this year continues.

As the British Grand Prix showed, Red Bull now face credible threats not only from McLaren but Mercedes as well. As those two teams continue to reap the benefits of being able to conduct more development under F1’s Aerodynamic Testing Rules (and not forgetting Ferrari, if they correct their course), Verstappen may find wins harder to come by in the second half of the year.

If that is how the second half of the championship plays out, Verstappen will be grateful for the 84 points he already has in hand, equivalent to more than three grands prix wins. He will also be relieved no driver has yet broken free from the chasing pack as a clear contender: While Verstappen has seven wins, five others have one each.

As long as Verstappen keeps finishing in the kind of high-scoring positions the RB20 is capable of, his fourth championship should be assured. The reliability of F1 cars these days can usually be taken for granted, his Australian Grand Prix retirement notwithstanding.

The greatest threat to Verstappen’s title therefore is the possibility he might throw points away in needless incidents. He didn’t do a great deal of that last year on his way to 19 victories from 22 grands prix, not least because his rivals, faced with the inevitability of Verstappen winning each weekend, had no need to risk anything when dicing with him.

Advert | Become a RaceFans supporter and go ad-free

But the calculation has changed for Verstappen’s rivals now. Three of Red Bull’s rival teams know they have the potential to win races this year.

Verstappen’s capacity for restraint is underestimated by some. After his Austrian Grand Prix clash with Lando Norris there was no shortage of opinion pieces chiding him condescendingly for his “immaturity”.

But Verstappen has shown he is more shrew in judging how much to risk in wheel-to-wheel combat. He takes several…