Odds Point to 1st-Time Brickyard 400 Winner

The Brickyard 400 will return this Sunday (July 21) for the first time since 2020, just in time for the 30th anniversary of the race’s inaugural running in 1994.

Described as one of NASCAR’s crown jewels by several NASCAR Cup Series drivers during last weekend’s media sessions at Pocono Raceway, winning the Brickyard 400 and kissing the bricks is a career-defining and legacy-changing moment.

It’s a moment that only three drivers competing next weekend have been able to experience.

Those three are full-timers Brad Keselowski (2018) and Kyle Busch (2015, 2016), plus Jimmie Johnson (2006, 2008, 2009, 2012), who will return as part of his limited schedule in Legacy Motor Club’s No. 84 car.

All the other recent winners have since retired. Kevin Harvick won the last two editions in 2019 and 2020 before the race’s hiatus, while Kasey Kahne (2017), Jeff Gordon (2014) and Ryan Newman (2013) complete the winner’s circle for Brickyard 400s held in the Gen 6 era.

It’s only been four years since the last running, and yet there are 11 drivers who will make their Brickyard 400 debuts in one week’s time. Conversely, there are five drivers who have made at least 10 starts at the track without a win, hoping to finally taste victory at long last.

And while there may be three former winners in the field, only one has shown the speed to be considered a serious contender. Johnson has yet to finish better than 28th in a Next Gen car, while Busch crashed during an Indy tire test a month ago and has been in the midst of arguably the worst stretch of his Cup career, with a nightmare season and a whopping five DNFs in his last seven starts.

Keselowski will be a player next weekend, given both his great track record at Indianapolis and the recent speed that both Ford and RFK Racing have shown as of late — especially in the most recent race at Pocono, where Ford won the race and led 94 of the 160 laps.

But if one of those three don’t win, who will have the best chance of adding their name to Brickyard 400 immortality?

In order to have an accurate sample size, there are 12 drivers in the field that have made five starts on the Indianapolis oval without a win. Here’s how they rank in career laps led, best finish, top-five finishes, top-10 finishes and average finish on the Indianapolis oval: