1. The Next Gen is no longer the Great Equalizer
While the competition is still closer with the Next Gen than it was with the previous model, the “Anybody can win any week” stage is past.
That’s not to say that there aren’t different players running for top 10s a lot of weeks, but the wins seem to be leveling out, not just in terms of different drivers winning, but also in terms of teams.
In 2022, the NASCAR Cup Series saw 19 different winners from nine different teams. 2023 saw a decrease in different drivers to 15, but 10 teams found victory lane.
So far this year, we’ve seen 12 drivers win for just six different organizations. Now, take that with a grain of salt, because there are still 14 races this year. We could easily tie or beat last year’s 15 drivers in the winner’s circle.
The team picture is a bit more telling.
The six organizations with wins in 2024 (Hendrick Motorsports, Trackhouse Racing, Joe Gibbs Racing, 23XI Racing, RFK Racing and Team Penske) all had wins in 2023. That leaves four teams that won last year but are winless in 2024: JTG Daugherty Racing, Richard Childress Racing, Front Row Motorsports and Kaulig Racing.
The issue isn’t really that those teams haven’t won in 2024, but that they haven’t looked close to winning in 2024. Across multiple drivers, those four organizations combined have just six top-five finishes this season. Nine drivers from other teams have six or more top fives on their own. None of this year’s winners drive for what would be considered an underdog at this point.
So, while the top teams are sharing success among multiple drivers, the smaller teams are once again being shut out. That’s not a great sign in terms of keeping fans engaged, because fans at least want the illusion that their favorite driver can win. The fewer times that plays out, the harder it is for fans to believe something different could happen.
2. The rule book is still written in pencil
Remember a year ago when NASCAR would suspend a driver for intentionally wrecking a competitor?
Apparently, that’s not a thing anymore. This year, it’s a fine and sometimes, but not always (Depending on the weather? The current phase of the moon? Someone’s kid playing eenie meanie miney moe?) a point penalty.
NASCAR drew the line in the sand and now it’s walking it back. That’s a shame because there’s no better deterrent to a driver than sitting at home while someone else…
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