The factors enabling Russell’s shock winning strategy

Lower-than-expected tyre degradation, and a no-lose strategy scenario, triggered the Mercedes call to commit George Russell to his winning one-stop in Formula 1’s Belgian Grand Prix.

The Mercedes driver had been stuck in the pack in the early stages of the race, as the frontrunners circulated together in DRS trains.

But as his opposition covered each other from undercuts and he shuffled to the front, Russell and Mercedes made the decision to change from their anticipated two-stopper.

The scenario had opened up because tyre degradation around the Spa circuit, which had been expected to be quite high due to the new track surface areas, came in much lower than anticipated.

That meant that, while a one-stop had appeared to be out of touch before the race, it was suddenly possible to pull off.

And the call became a reality when Mercedes’ strategy data suggested that if Russell stopped for a second time he would come home in fifth – whereas the worst-case scenario if he kept going was to finish in the exact same position.

That meant it was worth trying to make the one-stop work – which Russell pulled off brilliantly to secure his second win of the season.

Speaking after his victory, Russell said: “Amazing, amazing result. We definitely didn’t predict this win this morning in our strategy meeting, but the car was feeling really awesome.

“We made a lot of changes from Friday night, and the tyres just felt great. And I just kept saying, you know, I think we can do the one-stop. I think we can do the one-stop. The strategy did a really great job.”

Asked who pulled the trigger on the one-stop, Russell added: “I mean, I was focusing a lot during the race. So, I’ll have to listen to the radio comms back, but it was a team effort: Joey Leo, all the strategy guys, did an amazing job. And always it is that team effort. So, we rolled the dice.

“But it was only possible because the car was feeling really great, and the pace was there. So, yeah, 1-2, such a good result.”

Mercedes boss Toto Wolff told Sky: “We didn’t think it was possible but at a certain stage we said let’s stay out because we’re going to finish fifth anyway in both scenarios. He stayed out and at the end he made it work.”

Russell’s team-mate Lewis Hamilton closed right in on him at the end, but struggled in the dirty air to be able to find a way past.

He…