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Fantasy Forecast: 2024 Firekeepers Casino 400

2023 Cup Michigan pack racing - Ross Chastain, No. 1 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet (Credit: NKP)

After three weeks (and two weekends) off, it’s good to be back.

This week, the NASCAR Cup Series makes its way back to the Irish Hills of Michigan and the Michigan International Speedway. This 1.5-mile oval is very similar in design to tracks like Las Vegas Motor Speedway and the former Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, Calif.

There will be plenty of passing, plenty of searching for the correct racing lines and, should the stars align, plenty of pit strategy to go around. Fuel strategy finishes have been all the rage this season, and there’s been quite a few classics at this place as well over the years. 

Last week, my colleague and the former writer of this column Joy Tomlinson was gracious enough to fill in for me. Her pick of Joey Logano was looking pretty good up until turn four, and I definitely cringed a bit when Logano hit the wall off Austin Dillon’s bumper.

Drivers will be awarded points based on their finishing position, position differential, fastest laps and laps led. The driver who wins the race scores 45 fantasy points, while second gets 42 points, third gets 41 points and so on, at least through the top 10. The 11th-place finisher scores 32 points, 21st gets 21 points and 31st gets 10 points.

However many spots they lose or gain on the track are added to or subtracted from their score. Then, if the driver leads a lap, they will earn 0.25 points for each lap led and 0.45 points for each fastest lap.

DraftKings NASCAR Scoring Rules

Fantasy Forecast

1. Kyle Larson ($10,700)

Yesterday, Larson made a not-too-bold claim that he’s a better all-around driver than three-time defending Formula One World Champion Max Verstappen. I definitely think he’ll back that up with a win this week at Michigan. His record here is superb, with three career wins and nine top 10 finishes. 

Even if Larson somehow manages to not win this weekend, his fantasy value is too great to ignore him. He’ll bring you plenty of points on fast laps alone.

2. Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,000)

MTJ has struggled mightily throughout the summer, with few highlights to hang his hat on. So why then, would I tell you to pick a guy whose edging closer and closer to the cut line?

Well, because he’s sneaky good at Michigan.

He finished runner up here last season, and he hasn’t finished outside the top 10 here since 2018. If there is anywhere Truex can win on his retirement tour, it’s here. Besides, Michigan owes him…

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