Who wins the 2024 NASCAR Cup championship?

With the 2024 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs set to begin at Atlanta Motor Speedway, it’s time to make some predictions that surely will not age poorly. It’s true few would have named Blaney as the 2023 champion at the start of last year’s playoffs, or Logano the year before that. It seems somewhat futile to try and predict this unpredictable format, but we’ll try our best as we take a look at all 16 drivers and just how far they may go in the four rounds that make up the NASCAR title fight.

OUT in the Round of 16

Harrison Burton: While his victory at Daytona was an incredible upset, it doesn’t change the fact that the driver of the Wood Brothers No. 21 was last in points among full-time drivers before the victory. Atlanta’s inclusion in the first round may give him some hope, but Burton is likely to fall behind in the two races that follow.

Chase Briscoe: His victory in the Southern 500 shocked me, so I wouldn’t put it past him to shock us all again. This is Stewart-Haas Racing’s last shot at glory, but the facts just don’t show him going that far. Outside of the Darlington races, he has one top-five this year. I expect him to be decent at Bristol, but he’ll need to be lucky at Atlanta and faster than he’s been in previous road courses this year at Watkins Glen to avoid elimination. 

Chase Briscoe, Stewart-Haas Racing, Mahindra Compact Tractors Ford Mustang

Photo by: Matthew T. Thacker / NKP / Motorsport Images

Austin Cindric: If not for a surprise showing at Gateway, Cindric would be suffering another season mired deeper in the standings. He’s shown flashes of speed, but those are rare and his average finish this year is the second-lowest in the entire playoff field. If Penske wins a third consecutive Cup title, it won’t be with the driver of the No. 2 Ford.

Austin Cindric, Team Penske, MenardsQuaker State Ford Mustang

Photo by: Matthew T. Thacker / NKP / Motorsport Images

Joey Logano: Penske may lose two of its three bullets in the very first round. Perhaps a surprise exit, but despite a victory at Nashville, which only happened as most of the field ran out of fuel and crashed, 2024 has been a difficult season for Logano. This is his worst season-long average finish since 2011. The No. 22 team just doesn’t seem to have it all together for a run at a third Cup title.