The Stage Points Aren’t Worth It

Behind the battle for the win, Carson Hocevar recorded a new career high, winding up third. Ross Chastain and Zane Smith finished fourth and fifth, rounding out a Chevy-heavy top five.

A rash of cautions involving playoff drivers led to the overtime finish, and no playoff drivers scored a top five.

What Really Happened?

Unlike a typical oval race, road course races are massively affected by strategy surrounding stage cautions and stage points. 

For road course races late in the season, drivers in the playoffs and around the bubble consistently opt to stay out and collect stage points. However, other drivers without playoff implications choose to pit before the stage ends without losing a lap, thus flipping the stage.

The stage point collection strategy used to work back in the day when drivers raced with more respect and when passing on road courses was possible.

These days, staying out for stage points is just not worth it.

First of all, passing on most road courses has become extremely difficult. For drivers who already have track position at the beginning of the day, sacrificing that place at the beginning of the run to grab 10 or less points puts them back in a position to score less points at the end of the race. Stick around for some examples.

Secondly, the safest place in a race where a lot is on the line is at the front. The middle of the pack on back becomes a massive minefield, especially at a track with multiple narrow spots where drivers decide to use each other rather than their pedals to slow down.

Staying out for a few stage points early traps bunches of playoff guys back in the pack where they get more desperate and began to run the non-playoff guys — and each other — over. Let’s look at some examples for today.

Martin Truex Jr. easily had a top-five car at the start of the race. He stayed out to win stage one, but was stuck in 18th when he decided to flip stage two. Through pit stops, he got as high…