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Do Non-Playoff Winners Diminish the Championship Chase?

Questions Answered After Ross Chastain Conquers Kansas

Ross Chastain ended his winless 2024 season with a melon-smashing performance at Kansas Speedway last weekend. This Sunday (Oct. 6), the Cup Series heads to Talladega Superspeedway – a track synonymous with unexpected winners, where every car — as long as it’s right side up and has all four tires intact — is still a threat to win. Given the importance placed on the championship, are non-playoff drivers upsetting the intention of this format and diminishing it? This week, Joy Tomlinson and Vito Pugliese break it down in tandem in 2-Headed Monster.

Every Race Matters

Every race matters, even if a driver isn’t in the playoffs. When Chastain won, he broke a lengthy winless streak to claim the victory and play spoiler. If Kyle Busch had won, it would’ve also been meaningful for him, as he would’ve continued his streak of at least one win a year to a record 20 seasons.

These moments of celebration don’t change just because they aren’t competing for the championship. I mean, sure, it would be nice if they did win before the playoffs, so they could have a shot at the title, but a win is still a win.

Why would it disrupt the postseason if a non-playoff contender won? Some may think it takes away a chance for the playoff drivers to lock themselves into the next round. However, if drivers wouldn’t always go for points, they could better plan to go for the win. Yes, points are important, as only three drivers can win in a round, and in this round that would mean five spots available for points besides the three guaranteed winners. But the only way to make sure one is in is by winning.

Denny Hamlin recently said on his Actions Detrimental podcast that “teams become more conservative in the playoffs.”

He also said that non-playoff drivers “don’t care about the stage points. You’re going to see us [playoff drivers] at the (Charlotte Motor Speedway) ROVAL and all these racetracks selling out for stage points. What happens is all the cars that flip [the stage], they’re just going to end up front, they’re going to be the ones that are racing for the win, not the playoff cars.”

If even Hamlin, a driver who’s been in the playoffs for much of his Cup career, says that playoff teams become more conservative in the postseason, then it doesn’t make much sense to think a non-playoff competitor would throw the playoffs in disarray if they win.

Look at what happened a couple years ago. Erik Jones, Chris…

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