McLaren know Norris’ penalty is likely to stand

If McLaren successfully overturns the five-second time penalty the stewards handed Lando Norris at the end of last weekend’s United States Grand Prix it will provide a useful boost to his championship hopes.

The penalty promoted Norris’ championship rival Max Verstappen to third in his place, resulting in a six-point swing. Reverse that and Norris’ deficit falls from 57 points to 51.

But do McLaren seriously expect to persuade the stewards that Norris did not deserve a penalty for overtaking Verstappen off-track at turn 12 on lap 52 last weekend? Recent history suggests they shouldn’t.

The team has submitted a Right of Review request. This is a notoriously high bar to clear: Any team attempting it essentially needs to win twice in order to have any chance of achieving the outcome they’re looking for.

First they must demonstrate to the FIA that they have identified a “significant and relevant new element” regarding the incident which deserves to be looked at. Second, if they meet that test and the review goes ahead, they have to win the case.

In a dozen such cases held over the last five years, the success rate among teams who appealed was one in four. Many of those who tried and failed fell at the first hurdle – proving they had pertinent new evidence.

Speaking to media at the Circuit of the Americas shortly after the penalty was issued, McLaren team principal Andrea Stella admitted McLaren’s chances of meeting this standard were not good.

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