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The Polesitter Curse Has Been Vanquished

The Polesitter Curse Has Been Vanquished

Sunday’s (Oct. 27) NASCAR Cup Series race at Homestead-Miami Speedway had everything a fan could ask for.

The ability to pass? Check. Comers and goers? Of course. Unique pit strategies under green to maximize tires and lap time? Wouldn’t be a Homestead race without them.

The race saw a Homestead Cup record 33 lead changes, breaking the previous mark of 26 set in 2011. The race, which had an exciting battle for the lead all day, came down to a seven-lap shootout for the ages, with three different leaders in the final three laps and a superhuman effort from Tyler Reddick on the final lap to win and clinch his first ever appearance in the Championship 4.

What’s going to be forgotten from all the storylines this weekend (and rightfully so) is the fact that Reddick went on to win after starting on the pole.

You may be asking why that’s such a big deal. The odds say that a winning car has a great chance of qualifying first, so why is it important?

It’s important because Reddick’s win ended a brutal stretch of races where winning the pole was more of a curse than a blessing.

Between Ross Chastain’s win at Nashville Superspeedway in 2023 and Reddick’s win at Homestead last weekend was a 52-race stretch where the polesitter only went on to win once.

Yes, that’s right. Prior to last weekend, the car that started first was 1-for-52 in the last 16 months of Cup racing.

The lone win from the pole during this 52-race stretch was William Byron at Circuit of the Americas in March, and he dominated to the tune of 42 laps led in a 68-lap race where the only cautions were for stage breaks.

It wasn’t a curse with starting toward the front, as the car that started second went on to win 10 races over the same time, more than any other position. Likewise, the third-, fourth- and fifth-place starting spots had at least three winners each in the 52-race span. Drivers had no problem winning while starting second through fifth, but for whatever reason, they were allergic to winning after starting first.

It wasn’t like the polesitters went on to lay eggs on race day during this stretch either. In the 52 races between Chastain’s and Reddick’s wins from the pole, there were a whopping 17 polesitters who led the most laps in their respective races.

Only one of them went on to win.

Driver Race Laps Led Finish
Ross Chastain 2023 Nashville 99/300 1st
Aric Almirola 2023 Atlanta II 46/185 18th
William Byron 2023…

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