Bagnaia’s mistake or Martin’s success?

Last Saturday, after crashing out on the third lap of the sprint race at Sepang while fighting his rival for the win and the championship crown, Francesco Bagnaia was both hurt and bewildered. The reigning world champion was unable to find a rational explanation for the five zeroes he has accumulated so far in the sprint races which, as he himself pointed out, have been decisive in leaving Jorge Martin a step away from the title.

The Pramac rider will be celebrating in 10 days’ time if he is able to win the sprint, in which he has built a large part of his championship chances, at the Barcelona season finale that replaces the cancelled Valencia GP.

“I just need to improve my performance on Saturdays. I have to understand why I have failed so much, work on it. On Sundays, I was at a high level, but it was the sprint that made the difference,” lamented factory Ducati rider Bagnaia.

The results achieved by the two riders are frightening, and put them on a level unattainable for the rest. Paradoxically, Bagnaia is very close to losing a world championship which, numerically speaking, is his best season since he has been competing in MotoGP.

His performance in the Sunday races has been phenomenal, with 10 victories and 15 podiums out of a possible 19. In the longer races, Bagnaia has scored 345 of his 461 total points. Subtraction indicates that the Turin native has scored 116 points on Saturdays, 48 fewer than Martin’s tally of 164.

In the amount of sprint wins, they are more or less on a par (seven to Martin’s six), but the contrast between them is in the number of retirements. Bagnaia has five to his opponent’s two.

Statistics need to be interpreted and context needs to be added. In the era before the weekend format change introduced in 2023, only counting Sunday results, Bagnaia would lead the overall standings with a 24-point cushion and would be just one point away from becoming a three-time world champion in the premium class.

But that model of championship is now a thing of the past, and the current situation highlights one of Martin’s strengths.

“We already knew that one of Jorge’s strengths was his explosiveness, and now he has found a way to maximise that,” Pramac team manager Gino Borsoi tells Autosport. “To understand his form and the records he has set, I would point to that…