Max Verstappen’s exceptional victory in Brazil leaves him set to claim his fourth successive world championship title.
But it looks increasingly unlikely that the celebrations at Red Bull will be complete this year. As was the case in 2021, when Verstappen first clinched the drivers’ title, the constructors’ crown is heading elsewhere.
From leading by over 50 points in the championship in the mid-phase of the season, Red Bull have since been overtaken not just by McLaren, but also by Ferrari. Following Verstappen’s win at Interlagos, the world champions are 13 points behind Ferrari and 49 points away from championship leaders McLaren.
For Red Bull to claim the constructors’ crown, they must outscore Ferrari by an average of five points in each of the three rounds – something they haven’t achieved since the Spanish, Austrian and British Grands Prix – and outscore McLaren by an average of 17 points per round – which they last did over the rounds in Japan, China and Miami.
Given that Sergio Perez has only scored 20 points in total since the summer break, that seems an almost impossible outcome. But if Red Bull aren’t going to take the title, there are three reasons why they will find plenty of consolation in their likely third place.
Aerodynamic Testing Restrictions
Alongside the budget cap, which limits how much money all teams are allowed to spend towards their annual racing activities F1’s regulations also impose restrictions on how much aerodynamic wind tunnel testing and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations they are allowed to carry out.
Rather than the budget cap which applies flatly across all ten teams, the aerodynamic testing restrictions (ATR) apply on a sliding scale. Teams who sit towards the bottom of the championship get a more generous ATR allowance than those who sit at the top.
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As champions for the last two seasons, Red Bull have run throughout most of 2023 and 2024 with the lowest level of ATR allowance (the FIA cut their allocation further as part of their punishment for exceeding the 2021 budget cap). Assuming Red Bull will finish third in the championship this season, they will receive 10% more ATR time than the champions.
While that may sound relatively minor, that greater allowance could prove especially critical heading into the major regulations changes in 2026. As was the case during…
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