Daytona to NASCAR Title? Not So Fast

It was the biggest day of Ricky Stenhouse Jr.’s career — the day he won the Daytona 500, NASCAR’s most prestigious race.

No matter what else Stenhouse does in his career, no single race will define him as a driver as much as the Great American Race.

In the playoff era, the win also all but guarantees Stenhouse a playoff spot and a top-16 points finish. There’s an off chance that more than 16 drivers could win, and that would relegate a winner to the outside to look in. But it’s never happened to date, so Stenhouse should feel good about his chances.

But does a win at Daytona guarantee success all year?

Nope.

Very few drivers have won the 500 and gone on to win a Cup title in the same year. The ones who have headline an exceptional group of drivers: Lee Petty, Richard Petty (four times), Cale Yarborough, Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson (twice). That’s it.

It’s impossible to look at the numbers and draw conclusions across the board, as the racing and the focus has undergone several drastic changes. There are, however, some definite trends that emerge within different blocks of time. A look at the performance of all Daytona 500 winners and their seasons is worth taking.

Pre-Modern Era: 1959 to 1971

Championships by Daytona 500 winners: Three (Lee Petty, 1959; Richard Petty, 1964, 1971)
Average points finish of Daytona 500 winners: 10.55

This is the most difficult era of NASCAR to really compare Daytona to the rest of the year, because the Pettys were the only winners of the race to run more than a partial schedule. With the schedule sometimes exceeding 50 events, it was uncommon for anyone to race every week. Daytona was a draw because it paid a lot of money and a lot of points, so many drivers made it part of their schedules. Some did well in the final standings by cherry-picking the races they did run, though the champion often ran all or most of the points-paying events.

Not included in the average points finish is Mario Andretti, who did not receive any points, most likely due to late entries or running in other series. Andretti won the 500 in 1967 as part of a six-race schedule worked into his open-wheel season.

Other winners in that stretch included Junior Johnson, Marvin Panch, Fireball Roberts, Tiny Lund, Fred Lorenzen, Yarborough, LeeRoy Yarbrough and Pete Hamilton. Johnson finished seventh in points in 1960, the best of any driver not named Petty in this era; Hamilton’s 21st-place finish in…