Could Kyle Busch be defined as a championship favorite?
Well, yes.
When a driver moves to a brand new team, there will usually be a growing period where they learn how this team operates. Organizations in NASCAR can function in dramatically different ways, especially when it’s a move like Kyle Busch’s where no personnel or sponsors followed to a new manufacturer.
I looked at all of the very successful NASCAR Cup Series free agent signings in history, situations like Busch where the driver was wined and dined after deciding they would make a move. With his win at the Talladega Superspeedway last weekend, Busch has now won multiple races in his first 10 starts with Richard Childress Racing.
How many times has this feat happened in history? Well, when only looking at the modern era starting in 1972 and counting neither part-time nor driver buyout/ride-hopping situations, there have been just eight times it has happened.
Bobby Allison performed it three times. Perhaps the most adaptable driver in history, Allison accomplished it in 1972 with Junior Johnson, 1978 with Bud Moore and 1982 with DiGard Racing.
Bill Elliott was the first besides Allison to do it in 1992 with Johnson. Busch himself was next 16 years later in 2008 with Joe Gibbs. Matt Kenseth came aboard JGR in 2013 and did the same as his then-teammate, then the next year Kevin Harvick began his dominant run with Stewart-Haas Racing doing the same thing.
And that’s it before Busch again in 2023. Kyle Larson couldn’t do it with Hendrick, Brad Keselowski nor Joey Logano at Team Penske. Not even Martin Truex Jr. with virtually the same championship-winning Furniture Row Racing team around him at JGR in 2019.
Of the times it has happened, every single driver has finished second in points, with the exceptions of Busch (10th in 2008) and Harvick (who outright won the championship). Allison (with DiGard) and Busch (with JGR) eventually won championships with their teams.
Allison had a great run, winning multiple races with Moore every year before leaving in 1981. Kenseth had success at JGR before closing his career out there, if we don’t count his part-time stint at Roush Fenway Racing in 2018 or his doomed 2020 campaign with Chip Ganassi Racing.
It’s not often partnerships that start this hot bomb out. Allison spent a great season with Johnson that was marred by the two feuding so much that Allison left at year’s end. Elliott, after coming up just…
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