After a dramatic Qatar Grand Prix, in which Bagnaia finished second while Martin struggled to a season-worst 10th due to a rear tyre issues, the gap between the pair stands at 21 points.
Bagnaia has led the championship at the end of each weekend since the Spanish Grand Prix, only losing it once briefly in that time in Indonesia when Martin went seven points clear when he won the sprint.
Ahead of the Valencia GP, the final round of the campaign, there are just 37 points up for grabs.
Bagnaia can win the championship on Saturday in the sprint, while Martin’s only chance will be in the grand prix on Sunday depending on what happens in the half-distance race.
Bagnaia must end the sprint with a margin of 25 points more than Martin to ensure a second-successive MotoGP title, as the Italian’s six grand prix victories to his rival’s four would negate any tie-break situation.
Photo by: Gold and Goose / Motorsport Images
Francesco Bagnaia, Ducati Team, Jorge Martin, Pramac Racing
The permutations are as follows:
If Bagnaia wins the sprint, Martin must finish second to keep the title fight alive
If Bagnaia is second and Martin doesn’t win, Martin must finish inside the top four to keep the title fight alive
If Bagnaia is third and Martin isn’t first or second, Martin must finish inside the top six to keep the title fight alive
If Bagnaia is fourth and Martin is not ahead of him, Martin must finish inside the top seven to keep the title fight alive
If Bagnaia is fifth and Martin is not ahead of him, Martin must finish inside the top eight to keep the title fight alive
If Bagnaia is sixth and Martin is not ahead of him, Martin must finish inside the top nine to keep the title fight alive
If Bagnaia is seventh or lower in the sprint, he cannot win the championship regardless of where Martin is
This will be the sixth time in the modern MotoGP era that the championship will be decided at the final round of a season.
Last year, Bagnaia beat Fabio Quartararo to the crown after coming to Valencia with a 23-point lead.
Prior to that, the 2017, 2015, 2013 and 2006 championships all went down to the wire in Valencia.
Click Here to Read the Full Original Article at Autosport.com – MotoGP – Stories…