With Max Verstappen winning 19 of the 22 grands prix held last season, neutral fans could easily be forgiven for hoping to see the world champion off the top spot on the grid for the first race of 2024.
But wasn’t how things played out in Bahrain. To the surprise of the Red Bull driver – but probably no-one else – he will start his title defence from pole for the second year in a row.
All through the winter and pre-season, the finest technical minds throughout the field all predicted that the 10 teams would likely grow even closer heading into year three of the current technical regulations. And on the basis of what we’ve seen so far this weekend, they have all been proven right.
In the first season of Formula 1’s ground effect era in 2022, the gap between pole and 10th in Q3 was 1.7 seconds. Last year, it was 1.2 seconds. This weekend, just over half a second covers the top nine on the grid. Had tenth-placed Nico Hulkenberg had a fresh set of softs for Q3 to match his best Q2 lap, the field spread between the top ten in round one would have halved in a year.
The evidence is clear – the competition will be fierce in 2024. But while qualifying performance is one thing, race pace can be an entirely different matter.
Verstappen is clearly confident the RB20, like its predecessor, is a better race car than a qualifying car. The data appears to back that up. In Thursday night’s long runs on a set of soft tyres, Verstappen’s average pace of 1’36.715 was quicker than any of the nine drivers who will start behind him on the grid.
Last year, Leclerc could do little to put pressure on the two Red Bulls ahead of him through the Bahrain race. But in 2022, when the Ferrari led from pole, the battle between the pair was exquisite.
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It’s especially critical for Leclerc to ensure he keeps within a second of Verstappen in the early laps on Saturday. Not just to try and keep the Red Bull from pulling away, but to avoid becoming the unwilling leader of a lengthy DRS train made up of all those equally-matched cars.
Overtaking Verstappen may be even more of a challenge this year, though the data exaggerates this somewhat. Although Verstappen recorded by far the highest top speed through qualifying, hitting 327kph, this was thanks to a generous tow along the pit straight from Kevin Magnussen. Even so, the Red Bulls…
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