Last weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series race at Watkins Glen International shook up the playoff standings, as the only playoff drivers to finish in the top 10 were Chase Briscoe and Austin Cindric. Both are in their second postseason and have less overall experience than most of the other title hopefuls.
On the other hand, drivers like Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex Jr. all had rough days at Watkins Glen. Heading into an elimination race at Bristol Motor Speedway, they all find themselves below the cut line. Although none of them are in must-win territory, they will need a good race at Bristol to keep their championship hopes alive in 2024.
One thing that Hamlin, Keselowski and Truex have going for themselves is years of experience. Hamlin and Truex both joined the Cup Series full time in 2006, while Keselowski became a Cup regular in 2010. In that time, they have combined for 41 postseason appearances: 18 by Hamlin, 12 for Keselowski and 11 from Truex. Keselowski and Truex also have one championship each.
Compare those numbers to those of Briscoe and Ty Gibbs, the two drivers on the bubble going to Bristol. Briscoe has only one other postseason appearance. Gibbs is in the playoffs for the first time and is running just his second full-time Cup season. Bristol is a track where patience and race management make a big difference, and that gives most of the drivers below the cut line an edge.
Hamlin has the easiest path forward, facing only a six-point deficit to Briscoe and Gibbs. However, nothing has been easy for Hamlin lately. The trouble started last month when NASCAR issued the No. 11 team an L2 penalty for a procedural error with Hamlin’s race-winning engine from Bristol earlier this season. The team lost 75 points and 10 playoff points.
Before the penalty, Hamlin had an outside chance to win the regular-season championship. But the loss of points, combined with a bad finish at Daytona International Speedway a few days later, dropped him to seventh in the standings.
Things got even worse for Hamlin once the playoffs began. He ran a cautious race at Atlanta Motor Speedway after a poor qualifying session. Hamlin said after the race that his goal had been to leave with at least 20 points. However, the No. 11 got swept up in a big crash on the last lap, saddling him with a 24th-place result. Since Hamlin did not earn any other stage points, he left Atlanta with only 13 additional points.
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