If you watch the NFL on a regular basis, you will notice that passing touchdowns have dramatically decreased during the past two seasons in favor of rushing touchdowns and field goals.
If you watch the NASCAR Cup Series on a regular basis, you will also experience a similar phenomenon: the biggest stars of the Gen 6 era are still the biggest stars of the Next Gen era, but the average finish of top drivers has spiraled off a cliff.
In 2019, 2020 and 2021 (the last three seasons of the Gen 6 car), there was at least one full-time driver who had an average finish better than ninth. There were at least two drivers that sported an average finish better than 10th, and in 2020 and 2021, there were at least 10 drivers with an average finish better than 14th.
Flash forward to the first three years of the Next Gen era, and it’s been a far different story. Not a single driver has finished a season with an average finish better than 11th since 2022, and most of the top drivers have posted an average finish between 12th and 14th.
Remember how there were 10 drivers that had an average finish better than 14th in both 2020 and 2021? Well, through the first 28 races of the 2024 Cup season, Tyler Reddick and Chase Elliott are the only drivers that have an average finish better than 14th.
Even in 2022 and 2023, there were five and six drivers, respectively, that had an average finish better than 14th. The fact that only two drivers are above that mark with more than 75% of the 2024 season complete is nothing short of absurd.
Do you know who isn’t in this year’s top 10? Denny Hamlin. Despite scoring three wins and ranking second among drivers in laps led this season (917), Hamlin has posted an average finish of 15.6, which puts him well outside the mark this season. Also absent from this year’s top 10 is defending champion Ryan Blaney, who has two wins and eight top-five finishes, but also three last-place finishes and seven results of 29th or worse to net him an average of 16.1.
So what gives?
Well, the short answer is that the Next Gen has bridged the gap between what were previously the top teams and the mid-pack teams. The car’s debut season in 2022 tied 2001’s record of 19 different winners in a single season, and 2023 wasn’t too shabby itself with 15…
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