What the Austin sprint race and qualifying tells us about the 2024 F1 US GP

As he returned to winning ways in Formula 1’s 2024 United States Grand Prix sprint race, and was on course for proper pole at Austin, Red Bull’s Max Verstappen is the heavy favourite to score a fourth consecutive GP triumph here.

But, thanks to George Russell’s late Q3 crash, Verstappen’s title rival Lando Norris starts on pole for McLaren after producing “the best [lap] of my career” on what turned out to be the critical first runs in Q3.

However, it’s at Ferrari where the data indicates Verstappen’s most likely threat will come.
As we’ll show, the Scuderia isn’t just pleased to be in contention at a “normal” track, as Carlos Sainz put it in the post-qualifying press conference. It thinks it can win on Sunday at the Circuit of the Americas.

The qualifying ‘what ifs’ for Verstappen and Sainz

Russell’s wild crash at the penultimate corner on the final Q3 runs stopped any improvements, but there’s plenty of evidence to suggest Verstappen was set to topple Norris for pole on Saturday evening had that not happened.

First, Norris insisted “I kind of set the bar too high because, on my second lap, I was like, ‘guys, I don’t think I’m going to improve much here'”. This combines with how Verstappen was up by 0.172 seconds in sector one on their uncompleted laps.

But Norris had been a whopping 0.5s quicker in sector two on the first runs compared to Verstappen, so it may have been a closer run thing.

Sainz too was somewhat ruing Russell’s crash, as he was “coming with a very fast lap” when the yellow flags appeared. “To be in the ballpark with these two guys, whether to beat them or not, I don’t know,” he added. “But, to be in the ballpark, it’s a bit of a shame.”

Sainz had indeed just gone only 0.151s slower than Verstappen through sector one with a personal best, but critically matched what Norris had achieved on his pole lap in sector one. Sainz later wondered if “it was a lower track temp” that made “the car come alive”.

Given how the McLarens had struggled to stop their rear tyres overheating in sector three – where Verstappen was able to pull away from Norris during their mid-sprint chase as his RB20 has the balance to allow him to “drive to what the car allows” – the falling temperatures as dusk rolled in would’ve boosted the MCL38s too.

The RB20…