Bristol Motor Speedway’s night race has long been one of the most anticipated events of the NASCAR season. The track known as Thunder Valley is no stranger to making or breaking championship dreams. But in 2022, Bristol hosts the final race in the round of 16 for the third time. With nearly half the playoff field vulnerable to elimination, the stakes have rarely been higher heading into the night race.
In the first place, none of the playoff drivers have won through two postseason races. Darlington Raceway’s Southern 500 went to Erik Jones, his first points-paying win since the 2019 Southern 500. One week later, Bubba Wallace captured the second victory of his career with a win at Kansas Speedway. As a result, the only driver locked into the next round of the playoffs is Christopher Bell, due to a 58-point advantage over the cut line. Several other drivers, including William Byron, Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney and Alex Bowman all have at least 30 points over the cutoff and are in good shape to advance.
The real battle is going to be among everyone from 10th place in points on back. All of those drivers are either below the cut line or ahead by no more than six points. Kevin Harvick’s situation is the most dire. He stands last on the playoff grid at 35 below the cut line. It is not a mathematical must-win situation, but it is difficult to picture Harvick advancing without a win at Thunder Valley.
The good news for Harvick and the No. 4 team is that they have been in this position before. In 2015, Harvick’s postseason got off to a rough start with finishes of 42nd and 21st in the first two races. Facing elimination, Harvick struck back at the competition with an overwhelming win in the third race, then held at Dover International Speedway. Just how dominant was the No. 4 that day? Harvick started 15th, blasted into the lead by lap 24, and proceeded to lead 355 of the 400 laps on his way to victory. The clutch performance kept Harvick in the game all the way to the final round of the playoffs.
One year earlier, another last-ditch victory was crucial to Harvick winning the championship. Throughout 2014, his first season with Stewart-Haas Racing, Harvick was often lightning fast but was also plagued by crashes and mechanical failures. A 33rd-place finish to begin the round of eight looked like it would be a fatal blow to Harvick’s title hopes. However, he was able to score a win at Phoenix Raceway two weeks later and punch his…
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