Can Noah Gragson Win 10 Xfinity Races This Season?

With four races to go in the 2022 season, what are the chance of winner No. 20?

Chris Buescher‘s win at Bristol Motor Speedway last month made him the 19th winner of 2022 Cup Series season, a number that tied the modern era record for the most winners in a season. That race was the Round of 16 finale, and in the search for the elusive 20th winner, the Round of 12 came up with snake eyes. The race at Talladega Superspeedway was closest anyone got, as five-time 2022 winner Chase Elliott passed winless Ryan Blaney on the final lap and beat him to the line by a nose.

With the Cup Series heading to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for race 33 of 36, a 20th winner is no longer a guarantee. Nevertheless, the next four races provide decent chances for drivers to break into victory lane for the first time.

This weekend’s race at Vegas is another 1.5-mile intermediate, a type of track that Toyota has dominated at as of late. Therefore, Martin Truex Jr. has the best odds of the non-winners to wind up in victory lane on Sunday (Oct. 16). After all, Truex was one of the fastest cars and finished in the top five at Kansas Speedway in September despite having to drop to the tail end of the lead lap twice. In addition, Truex was set to either finish second or win at Vegas in March until a late caution jumbled the finishing order.

For Homestead-Miami Speedway, both Blaney and Truex have a chance. Truex has four top-three finishes at Homestead in the last five races while Blaney was one of the best cars at Homestead in 2020 before finishing third. With that said, drivers like Reddick and Kyle Larson have used Homestead’s high line to perfection in the past and they will be tough to beat.

Truex and Blaney have each had success at Martinsville Speedway, but this race represents the best chance for a new winner aside from the pair in question. It was hard to pass at Martinsville in the spring, and if the same holds true in the fall, there is potential for another non-winner to roll the dice on old tires for a chance at a win. As for Phoenix, the last non-champion to win the season finale was Denny Hamlin back in 2013. If that holds true once again, the only chance for a new winner is if Blaney makes to the Round of 8 on points. And if he does, watch out. He led 143 laps at Phoenix in the spring, and it is one of his best tracks on the circuit.

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