What if there are more than 16 different NASCAR Cup Series winners this season?
We’ve heard that a lot this year. But we heard it a lot last year too, and that was much ado about nothing. So, should we really even spend time thinking about it?
Well, yeah, we should.
Because the Next Gen car has made 2022 anything but predictable, and suddenly with six races left in the regular season, there are 14 winners. Christopher Bell’s win at New Hampshire Motor Speedway last week brings the total of possible playoff berths on points to just two.
And we’re not talking about drivers 15th or 16th in points sweating it out. The drivers sitting just above the cut line are both in the top four in points.
Yes, you read that right.
Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr., currently third and fourth in points, respectively, are at the mercy of a still-stacked field of winless drivers if they can’t make it to victory lane themselves.
And while it’s hard to imagine both drivers remaining winless for another six weeks … it was hard to imagine them getting this deep in the season without wins, too. And yet, here we are.
As it stands, there are a few different possibilities for the playoff field:
No additional winners, or the only new winners are Blaney and Truex. If that happens, the field remains unchanged. Two drivers currently in the top 16 (Kevin Harvick and Aric Almirola) would still miss the cut, because two winners, Chase Briscoe and Denny Hamlin, are currently outside the top 16.
One additional winner who is NOT Blaney or Truex. In that case, only one driver can point his way in. Currently that’s Blaney, with a 37-point cushion.
Exactly two additional winners who are NOT Blaney or Truex. As long as those two drivers are in the top 30 in points, they displace both Blaney and Truex, despite their points standing.
Three or more additional winners. Should this happen, and it could, the driver lowest in points with just one win would still sit out. Right now, that would be Briscoe, but that could change if a new winner is lower in points (which would be anyone except Blaney, Truex, Harvick or Almirola). Hamlin is safe, despite being lower in points than Briscoe, because he has two wins. There’s no chance of enough multiple race winners to boot Hamlin.
Blaney (or Truex) leads the points after Daytona International Speedway without a win but with two additional winners. Blaney’s a not-insurmountable 78 points behind Chase Elliott. Should he hit a very hot…
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