Having started from 10th place on the grid after an engine problem left him without power in qualifying, even Red Bull’s best strategy simulations estimated that the world champion would only be able to make it as far forward as fifth.
But in the end, a perfect storm of circumstances – some due to team and driver strengths, and some due to external factors outside their control – came together to get him right to the front of the field.
Here are the five key factors that helped turned damage limitation in the title fight against Ferrari and Charles Leclerc, in to a knock-out blow.
Weather
George Russell, Mercedes W13, Charles Leclerc, Ferrari F1-75, Carlos Sainz, Ferrari F1-75, Lando Norris, McLaren MCL36, Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes W13, the rest of the field at the start
Photo by: Glenn Dunbar / Motorsport Images
Formula 1 has rarely seen an event where the temperature fluctuated as much as it did over the Hungarian Grand Prix weekend.
From the scorching 34C sauna in which Ferrari excelled during Friday practice, a change in the weather front left things at a chilly 21C amid clouds and drizzle on Sunday.
That turnaround, allied to rain having washed away the rubber to leave a very green track, totally transformed how the cars and tyres performed.
The Ferrari which had been so strong in the heat on Friday, struggled to get temperature in its tyres on Sunday – and that pushed it back in to the pack.
On the flip side, the Red Bull came alive – especially as it seemed to have so much pace on the soft and medium.
Furthermore, as drivers rapidly realised the hard was not going to be easy to switch on, Red Bull chose to move away from its original plan to start Verstappen on the hards and go for the aggressive soft, which ultimately proved to be the best way to go.
On a hotter day, he may well have set off on the hards and been consigned to playing the long game that would have left him stuck in the pack.
Instead, he had an early tyre advantage that meant he could go on the attack.
F1 2022 rules allowing overtaking
Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB18, George Russell, Mercedes W13, Sergio Perez, Red Bull Racing RB18, Kevin Magnussen, Haas VF-22
Photo by: Carl Bingham / Motorsport Images
The Hungaroring has a reputation of being up there with Monaco as one of the hardest tracks of the year to overtake on.
And indeed, that previous characteristic is exactly what Red Bull’s strategy predictions were telling the team: that the first quarter of…
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