Is This The Year Of The Playoff Spoiler?

Will any non-playoff drivers win playoff races in 2022?  -Charlotte W., Boone, N.C.

At most, one.

Since the elimination format debuted in 2014, only Bubba Wallace has won a race from outside the original field of 16, when he scored an emotional first career victory at Talladega Superspeedway last October. 

With 16 winners in the regular season alone and contenders like Martin Truex Jr., Aric Almirola and Chris Buescher on the outside looking in, you might think we’re on track to add to that total. 

I just don’t see it happening.

I’m willing to concede that there may be another rain-shortened race that produces a shock winner, and Talladega’s place in the playoffs is as wild a card as is left in the deck. But still, for the first seven years of the elimination format, only the chosen 16 scored wins over the final 10 races.

It’s crunch time. This format keeps the playoff drivers on their toes, and there’s too much at stake for all 16 to miss the front any individual week, let alone the fact that eliminated teammates and manufacturer teammates will certainly do their best to keep out of the way.

Plus, nobody wants the reputation of ruining somebody else’s playoffs. There’s a reason the finale has always been won by one of the final four. 

We’ve been counting down the Top 5 Phoenix Raceway playoff moments.

Here’s my pick for No.1: 2020.

Chase Elliott wins the first championship race held at Phoenix Raceway to capture his first career NASCAR Cup Series title. pic.twitter.com/uI1C5khm9H

— Bob Pockrass (@bobpockrass) November 7, 2021

Now, it may be likelier than years past that we get wins from eliminated drivers. With the manufacturer balance of power switching back and forth on a weekly basis but still only one winner locked in each race, we may see fewer full teams advance in 2022. 

We won’t have a Stewart-Haas Racing 2018, four-cars-in-the-Round-of-8 situation, which will bring eliminated contenders in as picks later in the season. Remember last year, when eliminated Alex Bowman went toe-to-toe with Denny Hamlin at Martinsville Speedway?

Denny Hamlin was NOT HAVING IT.

Watch as he drives toward Martinsville winner Alex Bowman’s car! #NASCARPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/mZvEVOaH2V

— NASCAR on NBC (@NASCARonNBC) October 31, 2021

With how up-and-down this year has been, that’s something I won’t count out, although it’s far from going out on a limb to say the…