Since the reunification of major, American open-wheel racing in 2008, there has never been a scenario where the IndyCar Series championship has been clinched before the final race of the season.
Sebastien Bourdais was the last driver to do it pre-split in ’07, while the much-missed Dan Wheldon was the last to do it in the current IndyCar series two years before that.
That run of consecutive title-deciding season finales is as good as guaranteed to continue this season. There are still two races left to run over the upcoming two weekends, but it would take a bizarre set of circumstances for current championship leader Will Power to clinch the title at Portland International Raceway this Sunday.
Power leads his Penske team mate Josef Newgarden by three points, while Chip Ganassi Racing drivers Scott Dixon and Marcus Ericsson are within 14 and 17 points of Power respectively in a series which awards 50 points to the winner. After Portland, the championship will be decided at Laguna Seca Raceway on 18 September, and any of these four drivers have a strong chance of lifting the Astor Challenge Cup as the 2022 IndyCar champion.
There are still seven drivers mathematically eligible for the IndyCar title. But there is a clear gap between the top four drivers and the next three, comprising reigning IndyCar champion Álex Palou, Scott McLaughlin, and Pato O’Ward.
It’s not impossible for Palou to overcome his current deficit of 43 points to Power and win back-to-back series titles, but it is very unlikely. Palou’s consistency – five podiums, and ten top-10 finishes – is a trait that’s kept him within reach of the title, despite the fact that he’s not won a race all season.
But he’s the defending Portland winner, and followed that up in 2021 by finishing second to Colton Herta at Laguna Seca. He needs to replicate those results – at minimum – to have an outside shot at winning his second championship in IndyCar, and that alone likely won’t be enough.
On the other hand, if Palou can’t overhaul Power, Newgarden, Dixon and Ericsson over the final two races, it’ll make whatever potentially grim outcome that results from his ongoing court case with Ganassi feel a little less awkward, if he’s left without a ride – in F1 or IndyCar – in 2023.
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