Red Bull’s domination of the 2023 Formula 1 season was arguably the most emphatic demolition of the competition ever seen in the series’ history.
On paper, there is little reason to expect their rivals will be any closer this year. The rules are largely unchanged, meaning much of the thinking which went into the RB19 will still apply this year. Some of Red Bull’s rivals seemed utterly bewildered by the nature of their advantage, which was slight in qualifying trim but routinely crushing on race day.
Max Verstappen has asserted himself as the foremost driver of his generation and nothing about Sergio Perez’s performance last season gave the impression he is likely to give his team mate any headaches.
A consequence of Red Bull’s superiority last year is it gave them the confidence to halt work on their last car early and advance their 2024 project. That may have negated the effect of their development restriction penalty imposed for exceeding the 2021 cost cap, if it was ever going to make much difference in the first place.
So the prospects of a close fight this year rest entirely on how well each of Red Bull’s nine rival teams (one of which they share an owner with) have closed the gap to them over the off-season. Here’s our assessment of their chances.
2023 F1 teams one-lap pace comparison
Red Bull’s advantage chiefly lay in its performance over a race stint. One-lap performance gives a clearer indication of the relative gaps between the various teams, but tends to exaggerate how close each was to Red Bull when it mattered on race day.
Data above based on five-race averages excluding the Belgian and Dutch grands prix due to the lack of good-quality dry weather data at those rounds
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Mercedes
Mercedes wrote off their chances of taking the fight to Red Bull almost from the word go in 2023. As they neared the end of their first win-less season in 12 years, Lewis Hamilton admitted he realised at the first test they wouldn’t be contenders.
Having taken a wrong turn when the current technical regulations were introduced in 2022, then failed to correct it last year, Mercedes wasted no time in making a significant change to the technical side of their operation, reinstating James Allison as technical director last April. Now it remains to be seen whether they have finally sussed the intricacies of the latest rules and have successfully…
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