Hamilton makes his worst ever start to a season but his next team are on the up · RaceFans

When Lewis Hamilton stunned Formula 1 before the season began by confirming he would leave Mercedes to join Ferrari next year, it raised an obvious question:

Has he pulled off a repeat of his perfectly-timed first change of teams, from McLaren to Mercedes 11 years ago, which turned then one-time world champion into a record-equalling holder of seven titles?

While that is much too early to call, on the evidence of the first four races of 2024, Hamilton’s decision to leave Mercedes for Ferrari is hard to fault. He has made his worst start to a season in his 18-year career to date, while Ferrari have increased their points haul by more than any other team compared to the same stage in last year’s championship.

Hamilton has just one seventh place, two ninths and one retirement to show for his season so far. That’s worse than Mercedes poor start to the previous two campaigns with its almost entirely unsuccessful ground effect cars.

It’s even worse than Hamilton’s dismal start to his first world championship title defence 15 years ago at McLaren. True, he has scored one more point so far compared to then, but today’s points system is far more generous (see below for his scores adjusted to the current points system). In 2009 he had a fourth, a sixth and a seventh from the opening four rounds – and would have been third in Australia had he not been disqualified for a Safety Car infringement:

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But this is only half the story. Not only has Hamilton had his worst start to a season so far, he’s had a less successful start to the 2024 season than any of his rivals.

Hamilton has 38 less points on the board than he did after the first four rounds of last season. This time last year he’d already reached the podium once and finished every grand prix in the top six – while this year he’s yet to finish higher than seventh.

His slump is slightly worse than that of Fernando Alonso, who is 36 points down year-on-year. Like Hamilton, his best result so far this year is no better than his worst over the first four round of 2024.

Alonso has been linked to Hamilton’s empty seat at Mercedes. But when he looks at how little progress the three-pointed star has made, no wonder he said last weekend that joining them “doesn’t feel that attractive”.

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But at this early stage in the season Hamilton can draw some…