If you were a NASCAR driver with dreams of winning the NASCAR Cup Series championship in 2024, would you rather be in Chase Elliott’s or William Byron’s position?
Would you take Byron, already a three-time winner this season with a bundle of playoff points? Or would you rather be Elliott, this season’s master of consistency within striking distance of the overall points lead?
Under the current championship system, featuring an elimination-style postseason and playoff points, we have learned that there is no single way to win a title.
Kyle Larson and Martin Truex Jr. did it with wins and overwhelming speed. Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano won the last two championships with strong momentum that progressively built during the playoffs. Kyle Busch earned his championship in 2019 largely by making the fewest mistakes among the title contenders. Some postseasons may echo others, but each run to the championship is always a little different.
The biggest key to success in the current format is that playoff points carry a lot of weight. The drivers who stockpile them in the regular season have a better shot at the championship even if they have a few bad postseason races.
From that standpoint, you would think that Byron has the upper hand over Elliott. Byron has banked 16 playoff points, the vast majority of those coming through his three wins. He will likely earn several more at the conclusion of the regular season, depending on where he places in overall points after the Southern 500.
Elliott only has six playoff points banked, mostly from his victory at Texas Motor Speedway. However, he could earn an additional 10 by finishing second in the regular season. Elliott could also catch Larson for the regular-season championship, who he trails by 20 points with seven races to go. That would give Elliott an additional 15 playoff points on top of what he has already earned. Byron is 94 points behind Larson and unlikely to win the regular season title.
If you are wondering how Elliott could be ahead of Byron with two fewer wins, look no further than Sunday’s (June 30) race at Nashville Superspeedway. Byron started in the top 10 but was unable to move forward for most of the afternoon. Crew chief Rudy Fugle and the No. 24 team made more frequent pit stops as the race went on, trying to get the car handling better, but they never got things to click.
Things worsened during the first overtime attempt when Byron was collected in the…
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